XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-23449

I have decided to help you understand how markets actually work so time for a lesson in trading 101 for noobs. Now if you can't be "bearish and long at the same time" then you can't by your logic be "bullish and short at the same time"? Do you know how ridiculous that statement of your is? Only a noob would say such a thing.

Trying to troll to score points with the "covid kids" just shows everyone you have no idea. Now here is todays lesson, there are two key tools in making trading/investment decisions. We refer to them as FA and TA. Now I know you don't believe in TA (hence why you got wiped out) and reading your posts you don't know much about FA either.

But its very possible to have TA indicators saying go long but FA telling you everything is bearish. Now FA will always win out in the long run but that doesn't mean you can ignore TA which is by far the better short term indicator (day trading a good example). Hence why they say the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Now I am much stronger at FA then I am at TA, although over the decades I made quite a few good friends who are exceptional at TA. But in your case there are plenty here on HC if you stop trying to be clever kid and read their analysis that you can learn from. This is why I generally take a long to medium term view and day trade in-between.

Because I know the FA will always win out in the end and my advantage is I am retired. So as I don't need the money I can patiently wait on the sidelines until the FA wins out as I know it will. The coming crash will be a once in a generational/life time opportunity, so I am happy waiting. Plus getting caught will likely get you wiped out.

Hence even though in 2023 as I posted at the time I went "full bull" at the bottom I warned everyone I was still a bear. You "new" traders always think only in terms of today or tomorrow and a few pips on different stocks. But, you will find the traders/investors that have been around longer with a lot more capital look for the big trades (market tops/bottoms).

Now my view point has changed I am no longer looking at the market from a medium to long term view because the FA is beginning to win out and quickly. So at best I have a medium to short term view now BUT much more towards the short term. I think we are out of bullets so not much longer to go. However, the TA is still telling me that long (up) is still the direction.

So you have two choices, go long and risk getting whipsawed to death in the volatility or you can do as I have done and moved to the sidelines and wait patiently. As I have repeatedly posted until my indicators tell me the collapse phase of the crash has begun I will not go "full bear" (short) but will post when I do as I did when I went "full bull".

Now I am in no rush since I know first hand what happens in market crashes/recessions, 1987 was the first one I was in. So yes been in markets a long time. Was also in real estate for near 2 decades. And unlike "new" traders I am not here to win popularity contests I couldn't care less. I am retired as is well known on HC so only post as a warning.

Now unlike those pretending to be "mini buffets" I have happily posted my story on HC many times. I was a full time trader for over a decade but while I survived 1987, the Dot-com bust etc etc because I was a full time trader by 2008 I thought I could get in and out in time so to speak. I ended up getting punched pretty hard in the face.

Doesn't matter now because I ended up going on to trade my through it and retire, but that was by sheer luck at times nothing else. And it took a long time that's how bad crashes are. Its why I post here warning everyone. I am talking from personal experience when I say had I sat out the last year or two of the rally I would have ended up way ahead.

That's how bad it really is and why I laugh at traders who say but you only earn 5 percent sitting it out. "Cash is king" in a crash?. Its also why I say its not the market crash that gets you its the recession. Many others I knew lost their jobs and lost everything including their families through divorce etc. That was not an uncommon story.

So believe me when I say what's coming will be remembered for a long time. And it will IMO be worse than any of the crashes/recessions I have lived through previously. Best advice I can give you, don't get caught. Now if you want to post something with some substance happy to discuss it in detail. Otherwise I am going to cut and paste this until it sinks in .