Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please note that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview-
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From a weekly perspective, PDN had another big week, a gain of 9%, last week was 17%. Moved from 736 to 801 with a high of 820. So now making a move towards my second number around 900.
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Shorts are still around 16%. Its not a good sign. 6 big ASX U stocks are still among top 15 shorted stocks on ASX, which doesn't make sense with what's happening in the industry. Way BOE is coming down and PDN increasing, there is a chance now PDN may become highest shorted stock in ASX in next few weeks.
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Personally last week I wrote I had exited around 80% of my PDN. Picked a small number this, but much less than I got out. Watching macro for next big play.
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Key Numbers to watch for stock share price?
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If it goes to plan, then we may see higher prices. These are the numbers I feel could be in play -
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702 - First level, very good chance of that happening
Next level - After 702 there is no real level as everything was in free fall. So anything in between 700 and 900 (next significant number 902)
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If things don't go to plan, first play around 702, then we will have to see if that doesn't hold.
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Review of KEY indicators?
Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few months -
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- CCJ - MONSTER week, added over 7% this week, with 2.5% last week, 10% week before - moved from 68.27 to 73.27
- BOE/PDN - GREAT week, gain of 5% for BOE (last week 20%) and 9% (last week 17%) for PDN -
- Spot Futures - MONSTER week, moved from 75.90 to 79.05, inching towards psychological 80, which will be scaled now it seems, next we.
So what are the numbers telling? (similar to last week)
- U sector overall playing very strongly
- There are no clear signs that we may have topped or topping,
- CCJ made a great move last week, and has continued to go from strength to strength
- ASX U stocks had a great week on the back of a monster last week
- Spot price is also making a move. For several years 80 (with inflation could be 85 now) has been touted as a number for companies to be profitable/to reopen, its inching towards 80 now
Personally, Last week I had mentioned I had got out around 80% of U. Added a few this week, some stocks still at similar level I got out, couple have moved ahead. Looks like still some legs for this rise. Spot will be taken over 80, which may provide some impetus. One thing I don't like about CCJ is that its not doing consolidation. It did that in 50s, then 60, but since then hasn't done. So if something goes wrong, there may be a steep fall. Also CCJ in under 3 months has moved from 35 to 75, nearly 115% gain. Its not a small stock, over $32b US dollars, so nearly $50b AUD. For it to make such a big gain in such a short time is spectacular, but also raises question - can the next 3 months repeat last 3 months?
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So what may happen next week?
- Last week I thought CCJ may consolidate before moving towards mid 70s. I was wrong. It has moved ahead and made 75 this week
- Based on what is happening, most expect that this rise will continue.
- There is a slight disconnect between my trading pattern where I felt a consolidation and then move up is better, but its not happening. So I am just playing the price action, but very cautiously. Before last week I was very confident and put nearly all on U stocks. Now I have much less, but watching and adding slowly if price action is supported.
- Spot should cross 80 this week.
- CCJ could make a move towards 80. Sometime I feel CCJ price and Spot price are in a race - very close price range in 70s, who wants to be ahead?
- On Monday, US U stocks had another good day, so hopefully a bright start on Monday
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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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PDN
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Last
$8.01 |
Change
0.250(3.22%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.195B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$7.97 | $8.20 | $7.95 | $36.81M | 4.556M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
5 | 6551 | $8.00 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$8.03 | 5000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 4000 | 8.000 |
1 | 5000 | 7.980 |
1 | 1980 | 7.970 |
4 | 4751 | 7.950 |
1 | 1200 | 7.900 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.040 | 9900 | 1 |
8.120 | 9800 | 1 |
8.150 | 1200 | 1 |
8.170 | 1500 | 1 |
8.180 | 5400 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.17pm 27/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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