Major concern that'll hold this down is $22.4m of environmental bonds to be paid over the next 18 months July 25 to Dec 2026 (footnote of cap raising presentation). The high and low electricity generation forecasts may indicate that TPS mightn't be back on at the start of July (reading between the lines).
Additionally, the feasability study notes generally 5-70% of electricity projects can be funded via debt. Thus 50% debt is $100M AUD, but means an additional $100m to be found through equity raise and other avenues. Hopefully we can secure 70% as a minimum from debt otherwise equity raises will inhibit the value for any current shareholders.
IRR looks very solid for this project and hoping all progresses well over the next 6 months towards FID.
Significant chance for a re-rate here, but equity dilution needs to stay down - especially at these share prices. Otherwise it all looks pretty good.
QPM Price at posting:
3.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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