To the cabal of shorts in MIN, best way to make money is going long today!

Hi all;
I have seen these situations before. Every stock is either a buy or sell, and the great economist John Maynard Keynes once said: "When the facts change, i change my view. What do you do?"

If you buy MIns at $24 to $25 today and go long, it will look remarkably cheap in hindsight when MINs is trading at $50 in one year's time.

13.8% of the Mins register is short; they are wrong. Here are the facts why, and what they should do to make money from going long Mins today.

These are the facts on why you should buy MINs to make money.
1: The Onslow Haul rd project is working well, producing 33 m t pa in June, with its Onslow manager Mike Grey saying there is now "no risk at all" to the project producing 35 m t pa. Mins beat its Onslow production guidance by 12% in June.

2: At current projection rates, MIns is producing over $1 bn of free cash flow a year, MIns trades on a price to free cash flow multiple of 3.9 X Fy 26 and 3.3 Fy 27. Mins is likely to re-rate to trade at 8 X to 10 X free cash flow over the year = $45 to $50 share price.

3: The free cash flow will be allocated very efficiently; Mins has achieved a 39% per annum return since listing in 2006, putting it in the top 0.5% of stocks globally for outperformance.

4: Mins has a simple expansion of Onslow to 50 m t pa by June 2026 for an expenditure of at most $200 m. With this expansion, the Onslow mining services business will make $654 m EBITDA per year, or $224 m extra per year. So the pay back on the incremental cap ex spend is less than 1 year.

5: At 50 m t pa, the rest of the Haul rd MIns owns is worth $2.8 bn, using a 10% WACC.

6: There will be no capital raising for MINs

7: The AFR and ASIC "investigations" are trivial, there is nothing in them, and irrelevant to the valuation of MINs.

8: Over the September to December period Mins could easily average 40 m t pa of production, 5 transhippers can do 44 m t pa (see my previous notes).

9: The shorts are out of arguments and out of time for their short positions and analytical justification. They have nothing but losses ahead of them on the current mark to market if they maintain their short positions. They lost 4% yesterday, 2% the day before, and will likely lose another 6% or more today.

10: The best fund manager analytical minds in Australia are long Mins: such as L1 capital (18 % per annum return for the main fund), and Chris Kourtis, etc.


The news flow in MINs over the next 6 months will be very positive so there is no "catalyst" to make the stock go down.

The following is the series of announcements you can expect over the next 6 months:
1: Mins beat June Onslow guidance by 12%, already done;
2: Peak debt occurred at $5.4 bn, and Mins is now rapidly degearing, already occurring.
3: $200 m payment from Gina Reinhart for oil drill results, may be at quarterly end of July, or full yr results end of August
4: Plan to target 40 m t pa of productioon from September onwards for Onslow, may be announced at full yr results end of August.
5 Analysts all upgrade their models after full yr results in August with $45 -$50 price targets; the maths is not very difficult!
6: September: Haul rd upgrade complete on time and on budget, as confirmed in most recent briefing by Mike Grey General Manager of Onslow
7: October to December this year, $200 m payment from Morgan Stanley to Mins for 35 m t pa 3 month average achieved at Onslow.
8: At full yr results, or AGM, MINs planning to expand Onslow to 50 m tonnes per annum from June 2026.
9: AGM Nov 26, Chris Ellison's CEO contract extended by a further year, to at least June 2027, as supported by the strong majority of current shareholders.

Enjoy the day, and enjoy the upward rerate of Mins. It will be a lot of fun.

Dekka.