WHY HOUSE PRICES COULD DROP 30%

There is currently a narrative doing the rounds within sections of the media that house prices will continue to go higher due to interest rates falling and there being more demand than supply in an attempt to create FOMO.

This narrative (being pushed by vested interests) is simple and easy to understand from a general public perspective that is too busy to research on whether this is in fact, true.

Yet, from the data I've collected below, it appears this latest media campaign is a desperate attempt to keep Australia's world-famous property bubble alive in an economy that is weakening (the real reason the RBA is dropping interest rates).

After all, the property bubble IS the Australian economy.

Firstly, let's look at the CBA. Australia's poster child of the property bubble:






Affordability levels currently making renting the alternative (except Perth). Expect this to change over time as prices drop:




As shown in the example of affordability in NSW below:




83,000 Properties sitting on the market for more than 6 months, a record in a market supposedly containing a lack of supply:




Just one example of prices in certain sections selling lower than 3 years ago due to an oversupply:




Mortgage arrears rising:




Understandable, given the unemployment rate has been increasing since May 2022:




Net overseas migration has been dropping and only spiked to make up for the covid shortfall:




The lie that cashed up migrants will drive up prices debunked and in fact could be the driving factor that causes a collapse in prices (Sell and return home as unemployment continues to rise i.e. 'Walk away'):




Housing ghettos in the outer suburbs selling for over $1m located in areas with insufficient amenities and sensitive to an increase in unemployment (and migrants returning home):




Finally, Australia's debt to real estate ratio:




That's it for now, I will add more to this thread as more data becomes available - feel free to add your own.

Opposing views are welcome but please, a bit more intelligence than 'there is more demand than supply.'
Provide evidence