Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.
Outlook for the day: Aussie shares look set to reverse two days of mild losses after Wall Street shrugged off the White House's latest tariff threats.
ASX futures: up 51 points or 0.6%
Overnight themes:
- US stocks nudged higher on the eve of a new earnings season amid growing confidence that the economy has weathered the first six months of the Trump administration.
- The S&P 500 overcame a choppy start to advance 0.14% on subdued volume. The Dow gained 88 points or 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite put on0.27%.
- A new quarterly reporting season kicks off tonight with trading updates from financial heavyweights JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. The rest of the week brings Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Johnson & Johnson on Wednesday, Netflix on Thursday and AmEx and 3M on Friday.
- “The big question for markets in the coming weeks is if earnings, which are expected to be solid, can overshadow the tariff issues that are still there in the background,” Glen Smith, chief investment officer of GDS Wealth Management, told CNBC. “So far, the market has been able to withstand tariff headlines and is more focused on earnings and economic resiliency.”
- Stocks are trading near record levels as economic data shows minimal impact from the White House's erratic policy-making. This week brings inflation and retail sales reports that are expected to soothe concerns about the US economy's remarkable resilience.
- Investors appeared to pay little heed to the latest trade developments. President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the European Union and Mexico face 30% tariffs on exports to the US from August 1. Overnight, the EU extended a pause on retaliatory measures until the trade deadline while talks continue.
- A mixed market overnight showed gains for the financial sector (+0.67%) ahead of tonight's reports. Also notable: real estate +0.67% and industrials +0.54%. The night's drags were energy -1.2% as oil prices retreated, materials -0.44%, tech -0.25% and health -0.1%.
- Upbeat Chinese economic data yesterday helped iron ore build on three weeks of gains. Data yesterday showed Chinese exports and imports lifted last month after Beijing and Washington struck a temporary trade truce ahead of next month's deadline for a more permanent deal. Iron ore imports expanded 8% month-on-month as shipments from Australia recovered from cyclones in the first quarter. Benchmark ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange firmed 0.26% to US$106.92 per metric ton. The Singapore ore benchmark rose 0.37% to US$99.65.
- Copper fell on both sides of the Atlantic as last week's US tariff announcement continued to distort trade. Available inventories at warehouses used by the London Metal Exchange jumped as shipments intended for delivery to the US to beat the introduction of a tariff were cancelled. More than 26,000 tons of Asian copper previously marked for shipping were "re-warranted", meaning they are back on the market. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange eased 0.18% to US$9,643.50 a metric ton. In the US, copper futures dropped 1.39% on Comex to US$5.5265 a pound. Other industrial metals also declined as the US dollar lifted.
- Silver and gold pulled back as the US dollar index rose, sapping demand for alternative stores of wealth. In recent sessions, the greenback has recouped some of its losses, rising overnight to a three-week high. A stronger US dollar increases the price of dollar-denominated commodities for buyers using other currencies. Spot silver retreated 35 US cents or 0.92% from yesterday's 13-year high to US$38.09 a pound. Spot gold was lately down US$13.59 or 0.4% to US$3,343.22 an ounce. Earlier, US gold futures settled US$12.10 or 0.1% lower at US$3,359.10.
Key events today:
- Consumer sentiment - 10.30 am AEST
- China GDP, industrial production, retail sales - 12 pm
- US consumer inflation (CPI) - tonight
S&P 500: up 9 points or 0.14%
Dow: up 88 points or 0.2%
Nasdaq: up 55 points or 0.27%
VIX: up 4.88% to 17.2
US 10-year treasury yield: up 3 points to 4.442%
Dollar: down 0.37% to 65.51 US cents
Iron ore (Dalian): up 0.26% to US$106.92
Brent crude: down US$1.15 or 1.63% to US$69.21
Gold (futures): down US$12.10 or 0.1% to US$3,359.10
Gold (spot): down US$13.59 or 0.4% to US$3,343.22
Silver (spot): down 35 US cents or 0.92% to US$38.09
Palladium (spot): down US$50 or 3.88% to US$1,236.50
Antimony (China ore): up 0.23% to US$19,830
NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 0.03%
Bitcoin: up 0.91% to US$120,030
Copper (LME): down 0.18% to US$9,643.50
Nickel (LME): down 1.12% to US$15,065
Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): up 1.64% to 7,963 yuan
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: up 0.92%
Uranium (spot): up 0.35% to US$72
Global X Uranium ETF (URA): up 3.89%
BHP: down 0.31% (US); up 0.6% (UK)
Rio Tinto: down 2.09% (US); down 0.7% (UK)
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