AHF australian dairy nutritionals limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-3

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    It's not really clear what their in-store / in-channel sales figures actually are though.

    Their distributor (Mutree / AZ Global) is owned by one of AHF's directors, Andy Zhang, who is a director of Alpha Group Holdings, which has a stake in AHF.

    Zhang has a history of taking on larger inventory volumes than he could ultimately sell through his distributor network, firstly at A2M and then again at BUB. At BUB he secured massive consignment bonuses in the form of equity in BUB, before his failure to move the stock caused the near collapse of the company and a lawsuit over his non-payment of debt related to the inventory (which he and Alpha Group ultimately lost).

    This is a long way of saying it would be wise to take sales figures coming from him with a huge spoonful of salt.

    Even giving AHF the benefit of the doubt, the growth of sales at this point is going to be more through expanding distribution (i.e. getting products initially stocked in more places) rather than through in-store sales growth (i.e. the product actually selling). Due to the conflict of interest between AHF and its distributor, AHF could hand on heart claim exponential growth (from its distributor taking on more product) without needing the product to actually sell (since AZ Global is not obliged to report anything to the market). But not for long - perhaps long enough to push through a capital raise though.

    Looks like AHF is on track to post a $3-4M loss for the full year, which is more than it has in its cash reserves and debt facilities, so it likely cannot sustain itself for another year without raising capital. So there is a financial incentive to prop up the SP for as long as possible.

 
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