Valuation Update

I've updated my blended DCF/NAV model by taking into account...

* no of shares on issue and cash position as a result of placement, and assuming Tranche 2 will be approved
* WE will still proceed a gas processing plant
* SE net capex 180mn and WE net capex to be 80mn

I've come up with three different models:

* Base case with conservative assumptions for timelines, price, risking, potential recoverable volumes and COS
* Median case with what I considered to be realistic assumptions/parameters (anything different to base is coloured yellow)
* Blue Sky case with unlikely but possible assumptions/parameters (anything different to median is coloured blue)

Base:





Median:





Blue Sky:




Say we apply a 20% management discount for their recent lack of trustworthiness/failure to oversee company's financial stability, the base would still be 18c, median 24c and blue sky 47c. Based on where we are trading, it is offering a substantial discount to take on that risk of ownership.

This is even more so if we consider the potential value add of OH - see Blue Sky. That is why I have been pushing so long and hard for OH to be appraised.

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