GGP – Downgrade vs Reality: What’s Actually Going On

Posting as UK Bottlerocket — if you’ve watched a few videos on GGP over the last couple of years, chances are you’ve come across one of mine.

I’ve followed this company through the explorer days, the Havieron build-up, and now the ASX float. Not here to stir anything up — just laying out the facts and calling out what looks like a serious disconnect between data and sentiment.

Let’s talk about the downgrade:
-Prospectus: ~350koz AuEq,
-AISC A$1,650/oz -Revised: 300–330koz,
-AISC A$1,750–1,850/oz
So yes — production trimmed ~5–14%, and cost lifted ~6–12%.

Not ideal. But not a collapse.

Now here’s what actually came out in the June quarterly:
-Gold + copper production: on track
-AISC improved quarter-on-quarter —
A$2,126 → A$1,736
-Cash: A$575M, no debt
-Integration of Telfer + Havieron complete
-Zero LTIs
Yes, full-year AISC guidance was revised upward from the IPO. But quarter-on-quarter, costs are coming down.

That’s not what failure looks like.And yet… the stock drops 25–30%, short interest ticks up, and we get media coverage that:
-Mentions ASIC without context
-Omits the actual Q2 production and AISC numbers
-Compares GGP to a failed 2015 e-com IPO?

Feels manufactured.This didn’t trade down because of the downgrade alone. It traded down because someone used the downgrade — and the post-float trust window — to apply pressure at the right moment.

Retail holders panic. Shorts press. Media amplifies.

We’ve seen the playbook before.

This isn’t ramping. The company still has to deliver. But the fundamentals don’t justify the way this has moved.If you’re shorting it, fine — just be honest: you’re not doing it based on the June numbers. You’re doing it on sentiment and timing. Fair game.

But let’s not pretend it’s anything else.

BR