option conversion and usn distribution, page-4

Hi rhiannon,
I dont hold ARDO any more but i still think about the relative values of ARD and ARDO.

As stated before i would not be buying ARDO but if i held them right now, converting @ 20c would be an option to get USN allocation. But its not a 'must do' course of action.

Right now ARD are say 23-24c. You could sell your ARDO for say 2.5c but they are very illiquid and a few hundred thou will kill the sp.

So by converting @ 20c you get a share priced at say 23-24c. + the USN allocation. To me you are protecting your investment and you dont lose anything. ( a bit of a gain if anything)

If you hang on to ARDO it would seem that you will have a strike price of 18c BUT, ARD are likely to fall to 15-16c
and you have just 4 months for ARD sp to improve to over 18c.

So to my way of thinking if you convert now you pretty well know what is going to happen and you come out without losing money except of course that you have to find the 20c conversion cost.
By not converting you run the risk that ARD do not get over 18c before July and you rip up the current value of your ARDO.

I dont think its clear cut but i think converting to get the USN allocation is a better option.

PS. there could be lots of reasons USN did not hold their meeting sooner. Does not have to be negative. I dont believe USN will vote down the Bullant purchase.