Negative of late - yep got to admit I am extremely annoyed.
It all boils down to "No Drilling", promises yes - and lots of cash but no actual drilling.
sort of reminds me of the central Bore Jorc I have been waiting for since December 2009.
When they pull their finger out and use the cash they raised on the back of Justinian to drill Justinian I will change my mind.
In terms of modeling.
I get anywhere between 70kOz using 2d Kriging - but I don't know what I am doing with Kriging so ignore that. And 273k using an average grade by area method using 500kT of rock at 17 g/t average.
The main thing is what what Mr market thinks - and Mr Market seems to think it is worth 279kOz based on taking the EV subtracting away the value of the existing resource (I am assuming 750kOz at $50 an ounce) and then dividing whats left by the per ounce EV of this resource (as readily mineable it probably has an EV of $150 per ounce)
This could be way too high - there is a huge difference between a rule of thumb estimate and what the geology labs come up with. In other words there is a real risk that what the actual estimate works out at is a lot lower than what the market "thinks" it would be worth.
It has happened before CDU as an example.
In other words do your own Geology and don't rely on optimistic forum posts by non geologists.
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