The point is, you are now saying that 'it is simple logic'. The fact of the matter is that it is not simple logic. If it were that simple, why not start a fund that just buys shares when a bb is announced and then shorts once the bb is over.
If it is such simple logic, you could easily do more than 50% per annum with this strategy. Wouldn't be many years before your fund is worth billions. Unfortunately it won't work as it is just not that simple.
No one really knows what CFE is worth, no one really knew if the sp would keep powering up, remain static, or go down. Everyone is/was estimating the value of the CFE and those motivated to buy and sell are determining the price. It is easy to say with hindsight that the end of the bb caused to sp to drop and that this is 'simple logic', but this is just nothing more than hindsight bias, plain and simple.
For the most part, it was not the bb that was driving the sp on the way up to low 70s (cf maximum allowable bb price and price action).
I personally am happy with the way the bb was conducted. They tried to keep the price around 70c and failed largely due to factors out of their control. Never mind, in a years time (assuming no macro blowup) it will have proven its worth. A low sp creates problems for CFE as it is harder for TS to argue to potential buyers that Marampa is worth 500m when the market cap of CFE sits at 350m.
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