I have seen some negative views on the LTR CR by a very few posters, mostly shorters I assume, so I have gathered my thoughts on this after a few days with a wider lens. I have used some new information from the press in recent articles which I was previously unaware of, such as the visit by the CATL founder (owner of Canmax) in a secret visit to KV in recent weeks and the fact that both the NRFund and the Albanese Gov has approved of and even supported the involvement of China, via Canmax as a major investor in LTR. This is huge news not yet fully appreciated by many IMO and indicates a significant pivot by LTR and the Australian Gov. It is also clear to me that Gina is not happy with all of this and has again been out-manoeurved by LTR.
It is also clear that the market generally so far is very happy with this CR. The so called "Taxpayers fund" has made 15% in a day for a start! There must also be an implicit understanding by all the participants that China will be letting the price of lithium go up, or perhaps they will have no choice as the demand will go crazy as @anatol has been suggesting by his research. This understanding is obviously held by the BEOT, the NRFund and CATL/Canmax. It makes no sense for LTR to accept investment from China, or for China to invest in LTR if the spod price was going to stay depressed for much longer. Why would anyone invest in a company with one hand while trying to strangle that same company with the other?
To me this whole CR deal has the feel that it was designed to:
1/ get the shorters out 2/ get the support of the BEOT to curb the downramping 3/ get all the funds LTR needs for the future 4/ invite China formally to the party and to start dealing with them long term and exert pressure on them to lift the lithium price 5/ get the Fed Gov on board 6/ dilute Gina and make her irrelevant 7/ put LTR in the best position in the world as the top hard rock producer which can and will deal with anyone if the price is right and build its credentials to do other deals both upstream and downstream.
This CR deal has achieved all of this in one hit.
Congratulations LTR Management. I believe we will look back at this CR as a turning point and an essential move.
LTR Price at posting:
84.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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