So I just thought it'd be a good idea for people new to the stock to have an easy to digest investment thesis/broad information about TMG and their Antimony Canyon project + the economic/geopolitical implications surrounding antimony.

What've done is taken some of my research notes and summarized them/organised them with AI to create a clear picture of the story unfolding with TMG.

I should clarify this is not completely comprehensive but should a short sharp bit of insight from my understands atleast.

Hope you enjoy!

(There seems to be an error formatting the section numbers so please disregard those)

TMG (Trigg Minerals) — Investment Thesis

Disclaimer: forward-looking, informational only, not financial advice.

Executive summary

• Flagship is Antimony Canyon (Utah, USA). Multiple stacked, stratabound horizons in brittle felsic lapilli tuffs, fed by steep faults.

• Channel sampling across historic workings shows high-grade zones beyond old mine footprints. A deeper sub-Flagstaff position is emerging. Average widths are trending from ~3 m toward ~5 m+ in core areas. Density assumption lifted toward ~2.5 t/m3.

• 3D CSAMT survey is mapping conductive sheet horizons and steep feeder chimneys prior to validation drilling (slight timing shift for accuracy).

• Validation drilling planned to commence later this year to underpin a maiden JORC and an SK-1300 TRS in 2026 cadence.

• Corporate/policy tracks: FAST-41 accelerated permitting, staged US funding applications (register -> submit -> decision), smelter strategy, and NASDAQ/SPAC prep.

• Macro fit: antimony is a designated critical mineral; Western primary mine/smelter capacity is scarce; a US mine-plus-smelter is strategically aligned.

• Antimony Canyon shows mineralisation on both canyon walls over a multi-km trend. The felsic lapilli tuff host is brittle/permeable, a strong stratabound host.

• Working model: sheet + chimney. Conductive sheet horizons at specific strat levels; steep feeder faults inject fluids and create thicker, higher-grade pods.

• Western NSW (WCC) remains optionality/valuation support. Utah is the near-term value engine.

1. Geology and sampling — why scale looks credible

• Stacking: up to ~five mineralised layers indicated locally, including a deeper sub-Flagstaff position beneath the main host.

• Widths and density: average true widths trending ~5 m+ in core areas (from ~3 m historically). Density lifted from ~2.3 to ~2.5 t/m3.

• Grade tenor: blended program mean ~1.4% Sb including background. Guidance suggests ~1.4% as a likely floor and ~1.5%+ once proper domaining excludes waste.

• Feeder controls: expect thicker/higher-grade pods (0.5-2 m at elevated %Sb) at sheet-feeder intersections; mineable sheet widths between feeders.

1. Board and why each matters to the TMG story

• Timothy Morrison — Executive Chairman
  Why he matters: capital raising, deal flow and project financing network. Directly relevant to bridging capital, strategic investors and a US listing runway.

• Andre Booyzen — Managing Director
  Why he matters: antimony operator. Senior experience at an Sb-Au producer (Costerfield). Brings mine development, offtake and funding negotiation know-how for CSAMT -> drilling -> JORC/SK-1300 and downstream smelter strategy.

• Chris Gregory — Non-Executive Director
  Why he matters: discovery -> development track record in Sb systems. Ex-Rio Tinto discovery leadership; ex-VP Exploration/Geology at an Sb-Au producer. Ideal to rank drill collars off CSAMT, validate continuity, and shape a development-grade model.

• James Graf — Non-Executive Director
  Why he matters: US capital markets / Nasdaq / SPAC execution. Multi-decade investment banking and SPAC roles. Key for SK-1300 readiness and credible US listing pathways.

• Nicholas Katris — Non-Executive Director & Company Secretary
  Why he matters: governance, treasury and regulatory execution. Keeps continuous disclosure, funding mechanics, FAST-41/funding paperwork, and exchange filings tight.

• Jonathan King — Chief Geologist (management)
  Why he matters: target generation and technical leadership. Translates mapping + geochem + CSAMT into ranked drill targets and, later, resource domaining for JORC/SK-1300.

1. Exploration Target (ET) — scenario ranges
   Assumptions for AuEq: Sb price US$58,000/t; gold ~US$3,350/oz. Using 1% Sb ~ 10 kg/t, each 1% Sb ~ US$580/t ore. Gold ~US$107.7/g, so AuEq (g/t) ~ 5.39 x Sb%. These are in-situ equivalents (no recoveries/payabilities).

• Conservative: 14-18 Mt @ 1.2-1.5% Sb -> 168-270 kt Sb -> 6.46-8.08 g/t AuEq -> 2.91-4.67 Moz AuEq

• Base (most likely): 18-26 Mt @ 1.3-1.6% Sb -> 234-416 kt Sb -> 7.00-8.62 g/t AuEq -> 4.05-7.20 Moz AuEq

• Bull: 26-32 Mt @ 1.4-1.7% Sb -> 364-544 kt Sb -> 7.54-9.15 g/t AuEq -> 6.30-9.42 Moz AuEq

• Blue-Skies: 32-36 Mt @ 1.4-1.7% Sb -> 448-612 kt Sb -> 7.54-9.15 g/t AuEq -> 7.76-10.60 Moz AuEq

1. Why CSAMT matters here

• Targeting: maps conductive sheet horizons at the correct strat levels and highlights steep feeder conduits. Improves pad ranking and saves metres.

• A good result: coherent sheet conductors across multiple lines; repeated sub-Flagstaff conductor; narrow steep chimneys under best channels; carry under cover toward Drywash.

• Red flags: only shallow patchy caps, diffuse responses, or missing chimneys near high-grade channels. Use targeted 3D inversions to reduce artifacts.

1. Early drilling expectations

• Main sheet (Flagstaff): 2-3.5 m @ ~0.9-1.3% Sb typical; 3-5 m @ ~1.1-1.6% Sb in stronger zones.

• Sub-Flagstaff sheet: 1.5-3 m @ ~0.9-1.3% Sb; 2-4 m @ ~1.0-1.4% Sb in better areas.

• Feeder pods: 0.7-1.5 m @ ~3-6% Sb, with local spikes of 8-15% over 0.5-2 m.

• Per-hole cumulative (base->bull): ~3.5-10 m @ ~1.0-1.5% Sb with internal high-grade pods.

1. Development pathway and catalysts
   Near-term (next 1-2 quarters):

• CSAMT 3D images and plan.

• Updated ET (~1 month after CSAMT).

• FAST-41 steps and staged US funding milestones (each announceable).

• Smelter strategy detail.

• Validation drilling later this year (supports classification and provides density/QAQC/met samples).

Medium-term:

• First intercepts demonstrating stacked hits (main + sub-Flagstaff) and feeder pods.

• Maiden JORC and SK-1300 TRS (2026 cadence).

• NASDAQ/SPAC listing path.

• Offtake/stockpile-style agreements if federal channels advance.

1. Valuation framework (illustrative, integrated Sb business)
   Assumptions: Sb US$50-70k/t; output 3-5 ktpa; EBITDA margin 35-52%; EV/EBITDA 6-9x; potential policy/listing premium up to 1.5x.

• Bear: EV ~ A$0.46b

• Base: EV ~ A$1.32b

• Bull: EV ~ A$2.45b

• Super: EV ~ A$3.56b
  Per-share outcomes depend on shares outstanding at that time.

THESE ARE AT PRODUCTION NUMBERS

Market cap/SOI/Share price table

1. Policy, permitting and community

• FAST-41 registration aimed at schedule predictability across agencies.

• Federal/state instruments: potential non-dilutive or low-cost capital; register -> submit -> decision are announceable gates.

• Community/agency groundwork in Utah already underway.

• US listing prep (SK-1300, NASDAQ/SPAC) broadens investor base and can lower equity cost.

1. Antimony criticality and scarcity

• Critical uses: flame-retardant synergists, PET catalysts, antimonial lead for batteries, micro-alloys, munitions, specialty solders.

• Substitution is limited and often reduces performance or raises cost/process risk.

• Recycling is difficult for dispersed uses (plastics, glass, friction materials), keeping secondary supply constrained.

• Western stockpile logic is straightforward given concentrated supply and limited substitution.

1. China and the West — supply reality

• Refined Sb output is concentrated in China; additional flows from a handful of jurisdictions; Western primary mining is minimal.

• Policy, environmental enforcement and licensing can tighten supply and drive price volatility.

• Geopolitical frictions add uncertainty to non-Chinese flows as well.

• Western programs aim to onshore/ally-shore mining and processing and build strategic stocks. A US mine-plus-smelter aligns directly with these goals.

1. Reserves/resources and why scarcity persists

• Many historic Sb districts are mature/depleted, with environmental legacies that complicate restarts.

• Few large, clean new projects; many occurrences are narrow, structurally complex vein sets.

• Under-investment has left a thin Western exploration pipeline; reserve additions lag depletion unless prices and policy support persist.

• Metallurgical complexity and deleterious elements slow conversion from discovery to bankable reserves.

1. Why geopolitics will likely persist

• Strategic competition around technology and defense supply chains is structural.

• Export controls, sanctions and domestic-content rules are now baseline policy tools.

• Permitting/build cycles are long, so supply cannot pivot quickly even with support.

• Higher ESG standards are durable; projects that meet them earn better buyers but take longer.

1. Risks and mitigants

• Geophysics ambiguity -> use 3D inversions, tie to mapped stratigraphy, cross-valley fences.

• Continuity risk -> target sheet x chimney intersections; 50-100 m spacing in core zones to reach Indicated.

• Permitting/policy timing -> manage expectations; stage announcements.

• Funding/dilution -> stack grants/debt/stockpile before big equity; US listing widens demand.

• Price volatility -> smelter strategy/offtake structures to stabilise margin.

• Metallurgy/deleterious elements -> pilot testwork; keep flexibility between concentrate and metal routes.

1. Watchlist — what to tick off as news lands

• CSAMT: coherent sheets at mapped levels, repeated sub-Flagstaff, steep chimneys beneath best channels.

• ET: layer count, widths >= 5 m in cores, density ~2.5 t/m3, grade band >= 1.4-1.6% Sb.

• Drilling: stacked hits and repeatable multi-metre intercepts near 1%+ Sb; high-grade pods at intersections.

• Policy: FAST-41 acceptance; funding milestones; smelter route clarity.

• Corporate: SK-1300 engagement; NASDAQ/SPAC timing; offtake discussions.

If you made to the end thanks for reading, I'm more then open to any numbers I've used here and I'm sure there are probably an error or two hanging around.

Cheers!

-Sledge