I take your points Stefanis and thanks for your reply.
I agree capex and opex are still conceptual and any valuation or NPV can be changed depending on the assumptions. I made the point on a valuation I came across. Financially this is going to be a very hard case to prove.
Argyle Diamonds block caving doenst have to sit under ~500m before start mining (just underneath the open pit) and once again I question the viability of it for C. The rock to be mined at C. its too hard to cave, hence the rock braking rate after the caving will be very high (buy shares on rock braking equipment!). I dont know who assessed them and hope they are not wrong, there are not many block caving experts in the world and none of the experts I know agree on C. mining method.
If follow what you say in regards to OZL management and follow your logic. What you wrote its logical too. I disagree with OZL management by paying a dividend and buying back shares(this is not a bank or large enough as BHP/RIO to buy back shares, instead they should be buying good assets) that to me its not very courageous.
The drilling of 100x100 sounds good, well in theory. However as we know its not enough to have a JORC. If you come across any explorer, most of them will do their best to have a JORC before negotiating. Why didnt happened here? Ask any resource geologist about the upside of the delineated ore body and see if the grade can go up after infill drilling to 50x50 drilling, secondly what if the SG used on the resource was overstated?
If you really wanted to buy something cheap, OZL should have bought long time ago RXM as it has more merits. The resource its right next on the coast, 60m of cap with some areas outcrops at surface...plenty of exploration upside and $100m in the bank!
I have to disagree with your $/lb ratios. You are comparing mainly open pit developments with an underground development which is also very deep as well. To me is like comparing pears with apples as the ratio doesnt take in consideration the effort for future extraction hence to say it was a relatively cheap purchase cant be conclusive and comparative to other purchases and need to be sees for its own merits or compared to a underground mine.
The bottom line is that OZL bought something that cant be developed in 7 years and with plenty of unknowns and risks when they could have done better. I wish OZL good look on it.
I wish you a good weekend!!
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