when the dust settles

This post is not for the day traders, shorters and others with only trading interests.

It's for those with a medium to longer term view and an interest in FA.

When all the dust settles - when all the 'noise', the delusionary, illusionary, uninformed, irrelevant and manipulative commentary falls away, it will be replaced by reasonable and informed assessments of what the nuclear plant damage REALLY means for the industry.

What do the long-termers do with this?

Well, its simple really. They need to add it to the risk profile for PEN and assess just how much it adds to the risk - if at all - and how that changes the risk-reward equations.

Not to do so is to just act on 'a wing and a prayer'.

It's no good just telling each other that PEN will be fine and just assirt that the Japanese incident will have no impact on PEN. You need an evidence base and, in particular, to ask (and determine answers to) the following key questions:

1. Will the incident impact the price of U - in the short, medium and long terms?

2. Will the incident reduce demand for U and, if so, will this impact PEN's markets?

3. If there are such impacts (lower U price and/or lower demand) will this reduce the project's feasibility?

4. Will the incident reduce the chances of being issued all the required permits? Or extend the processing times for them (due to heightened public scepticism re U and/or more stringent rules)?

5. Will the incident reduce the chances off raising sufficient capital for mine development?

We know that PEN has excellent (and ever-increasing) resources and first class management. The Japanese incident will not have any effect on those 2 critical assets.

But the above questions need to be answered imo (and not just through 'gut feeling') to have a clear view of what to do.

The carnage on the market today was generally to do with vague unsubstantiated perceptions of dramatically increased risk surrounding the sorts of questions listed above.

At the moment, my gut feeling is to not just hold but to also top up at current levels. That is, my gut feeling is that my answers to most of those questions will be negative.

But I'm also cautious and I'm going to put my mind to those questions in order to give some substance to the gut feelings.