A Black Swan event is considered to be an un-predictable event like say the 9/11 event or the curent problms with Japanese nuclear power plants, not the earthquake or tsunami of course, as these latter two happen regulary.
A crash in Oz. house prices has been forecasted/predicted by many i.e it's not or will not be a Black Swan event. To some recent buyers of Oz property, the crash will appear to be a Black Swan
