G'Day,
If you go to the orchidresoureces.net you will find an article from WA's Sunday Times a couple of weeks back, alluding to a 'tentative spin off of Orchid resources sometime in 2005.' I have posted on this outcome previously and it should be viewed as a positive given the magnitude of the projects ORC are attempting to develop.
Agree T4P that an inspecie dist is the most likely outcome for ORC holders and should be combined with a fresh equity raising at 20c or above which hopefully will fill the coffers until BFS completion for Jai Ma.
Whilst Qu Long is the main game in terms of a potential 40 yrs plus resource, it will require upwards of 30-40mill to get to bank and probably another US250-300m to get to production so can't see it being a realistic goal to bring it on line first.
Infrastructure exists to assit the fast tracking of Jai Ma (hydro grid, all weather roads) and given it is running at around 8.5g/t au.eq, has minimal OB and nice widths has the potential to deliver sig early cashflow for the development of Qu long. I guess another c.20m to get to bank (ore reserve, geotech, hydrological and met testwork/process flow)
I look at this project a lot like OXR was in 2001. They had 360mill on issue, were operating in a high risk locale albeit it on a quality asset. ORC have 262 on issue fully diluted , 6.5mill in cash from oppie exercise and a resource of similar tenure to Sepon (gold only) in Jai Ma on a NPV basis (I use this comparison very loosely).
OXR at commisioning (sepon) had 900million on issue so dilution is an inevitability, forget the bumps, buy on weakness and look to the bigger picture. ORC are so far from the finish line it's not funny but they have stictched up (almost) the hardest part: finding a quality asset.....cheers
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