Day trading pre-market open September 16

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: A strong night for key mining sectors and new highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq point to a positive start to the Australian session.

ASX futures: up 41 points or 0.46%


Overnight themes: ​

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at records as President Donald Trump talked up progress in trade talks with China, and investors positioned for a likely interest rate cut tomorrow night. ​
• The S&P 500 rallied 0.47% to its first close above 6,600. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.94% as Google parent company Alphabet hit a new high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average firmed 49 points or 0.11%.​
• Trump said a second day of trade talks with China had gone "VERY WELL!" and the two parties had reached a deal on TikTok. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would speak on Friday to complete an agreement that will involve the US operations of the China-owned company being acquired by US owners. “The framework is for it to switch to US-controlled ownership. We are not going to talk about the commercial terms of the deal. It’s between two private parties. But the commercial terms have been agreed upon,” Bessent said. However, trade tensions remained. Nvidia dipped 0.04% after China's market regulator said the chipmaker broke its monopoly laws. ​
• Tesla jumped 3.56% after CEO Elon Musk bought around US$1 billion in stock in a show of faith in his company. Alphabet rallied 4.49% to an all-time high and a valuation of more than US$3 trillion. ​
• The Federal Reserve commences a two-day meeting tonight that is expected to conclude with an interest rate cut of 25 basis points. The odds on a quarter-point cut remained above 95% overnight. The likelihood of a half-point cut was a remote 4.2%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.​
• “The market is counting on sort of a goldilocks scenario where the employment market is just weak enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to start a rate cutting series, not just one, without disrupting overall growth,” Carol Schleif, Chief Investment Officer at BMO Family Office, told Reuters. “I think the markets will be disappointed if the Fed doesn’t give some hint that they intend to continue rate cuts.”​
• The rally was fuelled by the three sectors dominated by Big Tech: communication services +2.33%, consumer discretionary +1.1% and tech +0.82%. Industrials and utilities also rose. The rest of the market saw red, including falls of 0.22% for financials and 0.82% for materials, despite some big gains in pockets of the mining spectrum. ​
• Uranium miners soared overnight after the US Energy Secretary said the nation should build its strategic uranium reserve. Chris Wright said the nation will need a strong domestic industry to supply a planned expansion in nuclear reactors, rather than relying on Russia. Russia currently supplies around a quarter of the enriched uranium to the US's 94 existing reactors. “We’re moving to a place — and we’re not there yet — to no longer use Russian enriched uranium,” Wright said at the International Atomic Energy Authority's annual general conference in Vienna. “We hope to see rapid growth in uranium consumption in the US from both large reactors and small modular reactors... The size of that right buffer would grow with time. We need a lot of domestic uranium and enrichment capacity.” The Global X Uranium exchange traded fund of miners jumped 9.35% as Albemarle gained 6.66% and Cameco added 10.51%. ​
• Gold posted a new high as the US dollar and treasury yields retreated ahead of an expected interest rate cut tomorrow night. Spot gold reset its all-time high to US$3,685.39 an ounce before moderating its advance to US$38.68 or 1.01% to US$3,679.05 in recent trade. US gold futures settled US$32.60 or 0.8% ahead at US$3,719. ​
• Lithium miners hit a 20-month high in the US, swiftly overcoming a wobble last week following reports that Chinese giant CATL would resume production at the world's largest lithium mine sooner than expected. The Global X Lithium & Battery Metal Tech ETF rallied 3.7% overnight to a level last seen in January 2024. ​
• Copper hit a 15-month high in London, boosted by a weaker greenback and optimism that the US and China were closer to a trade deal. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange firmed 0.16% to US$10,067.50 per metric ton. Nickel, zinc and lead all gained at least 1% during a strong night for base metals as the US dollar index tested an eight-week low.​
• Iron ore eased in China for a third session after the price of new homes in China declined 0.3% last month. China housing prices have been in a downward trend since mid-2023, dulling demand for raw materials used in construction. Benchmark ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange declined 0.31% to US$111.75 a metric ton. ​
• Oil rose for the fifth time in six sessions as Ukraine continued to target Russian energy infrastructure. Kyiv launched at least 361 drones into Russia, triggering a fire at a refinery in the north-west, according to Russian officials. “The attack suggests a growing willingness to disrupt international oil markets, which has the potential to add upside pressure on oil prices,” JPMorgan analysts wrote. Brent crude rose 45 US cents or 0.67% overnight to US$67.44 a barrel. ​

Key events today: ​

• US retail sales - tonight ​

S&P 500: up 31 points or 0.47%

Dow: up 49 points or 0.11%

Nasdaq: up 208 points or 0.94%

VIX: up 6.3% to 15.69

US 10-year treasury yield: down 3 points to 4.04%

Dollar: up 0.32% to 66.7 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): down 0.31% to US$111.75

Brent crude: up 45 US cents or 0.67% to US$67.44

Gold (futures): up US$32.60 or 0.8% to US$3,719

Gold (spot): up US$38.68 or 1.01% to US$3,679.05

Silver (spot): up 51 US cents or 1.22% to US$42.67

Palladium (spot): up US$1 or 0.08% to US$1,204.50

Antimony (China ore): down 1.35% to US$18,899

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 1.73%

Bitcoin: down 0.48% to US$115,305

Copper (LME): up 0.16% to US$10,067.50

Nickel (LME): up 1.59% to US$15,391

Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): down 0.06% to US$8,978

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: up 3.7%

Uranium (spot): up 1.32% to US$76

Global X Uranium ETF (URA): up 9.35%

BHP: up 1.35% (US); down 0.4% (UK)

Rio Tinto: up 2.05% (US); up 0.64% (UK) ​