take over bid, page-25

Now, let's have a look at what BHP is doing with this Jansen project.

BHP was accused many times by Canadians including PotashCorp's CEO that it didn't have any intention to develop this Jansen project but always tried to use it as a weapon to strengthen its position for buying PotashCorp despite BHP spent more than $00m on this project so far.

Even though you will see a lot of preparations on BHP's web site related to Jansen project which is expected to be built in three phases, however BHP hasn't even done the feasibility for Jansen so far, and this project hasn't been approved by BHP's board yet

Click here for BHP's web site Jansen Project .
You can see a 100mb Jansen Project Proposal file there. It's a 239 pages proposal. I have read it before. There is a long story about potash and Saskatchewan but nothing in detail, no resource size, no drilling results, nothing I need to understand this project in detail.

Now, BHP has decided to make the feasibility study, and given the job to SNC.

This part is from the news above;
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"SNC will initially complete a feasibility study for the first phase of the Jansen potash project, about 140 kilometers east of Saskatoon."

"BHP announced in January that it would spend $240-million developing the project, including ground freezing to allow shaft sinking as well as completing detailed engineering, equipment and materials commitments."

"SNC's mandate includes management of the hub program and execution of feasibility studies. It will also provide engineering, procurement and construction management once the projects are approved by BHP." (not approved yet!)
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Now, I am still insisting that BHP wont' be able to compete with PotashCorp when its Jansen project is finished. BHP need a very low cost resource to develop it and start a price war against PotashCorp to weaken it in next 3-4 years, then try to buy it again in next 5-10 years.

Now ELM is nearly proving a significant resource, feasibilty study will be started very soon,..

BHP should be very eager to buy it. The Opex cost is very low in this area as you all know. They could create a potash province in Western Africa coast and export to everywhere, especially to North and South America, which are the biggest customers of PotashCorp.

You can go back and read my post no. 6206399 for more details on "go long where BHP short; a takeover scenario" thread. Click here, if you haven't already done so.