Masher, I didn't mean you were biased, I was meaning gabeh when I said that.
Gabeh- let's take a look at this:
"2. If RMP raises $50 million and doubles the number of shares their market cap at 33c per share will be $100 million vs RRSs $500 million. After such a raising RMP will have plenty of money for many additional wells or other projects and still have a 3 to 1 adavantage over RRS in Georgia and a 5 to 1 advantage in Puntland."
If we take this as the situation (which is only fair, as once we equalise out the cash situation between RMP and RRS we can see what is the better investment in terms of potential and downside). The advantage for RMP in Georgia would be 2.5 to 1 not 3 to 1 (RRS of course have double the percentage of Georgia to RMP).
And just like I mentioned previously- is 2.5x the leverage in Georgia, and 5x in onshore Puntland worth the tradeoff of offshore Puntland and Trinidad/Cotton Valley/Texas? Don't forget the example above only equalises the cash situation, not the assets situation. You're ignoring the value of those 3 assets when coming to your assessment that RMP is 'clearly the better deal'.
Fact is though, we don't know whether Greg Bandy will raise money yet. If he doesn't then you've got a very high risk play on 3 drills here. I'll concede that if they come good you'll be made for life most likely.
But it all depends on your risk tolerance. If someone offered me either $1 million, or a 50% chance of $5 million (and a 50% chance of nothing), I'd take the $1 million, even though a 50% chance of making $5 million is worth $2.5 million.
That's what I'm saying. With RRS, you can be pretty sure it'll come good over the long term because of funding and cashflow even if we have setbacks. You cannot have the same confidence in RMP.
If Greg Bandy raises a good stack of cash to fund further exploration, I'd be willing to put some cash in RMP, even if the share price was higher than today. But 3 drills, even though 2 of those have a higher CoS because of a positive helium survey, is just simply too high risk for my liking.
Maybe I came across as too critical initially, but there's been a whole host of gamblers recent effectively saying dump RRS and buy RMP, pointing out leverage upsides etc. I feel it's only right to correct the imbalance. RMP is not the easy money it's advertised as. If RMP'ers feel that can trash Range, then don't get jumpy about critism about your own investment when the downside is pointed out.
I remain convinced that RMP is overpriced at these levels and so won't be buying any. You don't have to agree with me. I've said before 20c is a decent price to pay, I said that before the placing, after the placing (when they cut the vast majority of investors out from taking part in the placement) and I'm still saying it now. RMP has enjoyed a decent run since then (from 24c up to roughly 36c now), though RRL has emjoyed a better once (from 8.5p to 20p), so I'm clearly not the only one who thinks the same despite your assertion that RMP is clearly better.
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