I estimate FY11 EBITDA of $8M with shares going from 88.5M to 150M profit increase of 142% less 70% dilution equates to eps increase of 72% (esp 2.6c) therefore I value BGL at 26c to 40c.
I think these estimates will prove to be way too optimistic for FY11. I'd be surprised if EBITDA were higher that $7m, probably more in the order of $6 - $6.5m. Also NPAT margins will take a hit due to higher D&A expenses flagged by the company.
Integration of CVA is expected to take the remainder of the calendar year thus it will not produce the kind of margins the existing BGL business does for some time.
Not that any of this is a cause for concern. FY11 is largely a year of transition, the real kicker for earnings will be FY12.
Ann: Media Release - 1HFY2011 , page-11
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$1.63 |
Change
-0.005(0.31%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.079B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.62 | $1.63 | $1.58 | $11.45M | 7.133M |
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| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 119159 | $1.61 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.63 | 108765 | 5 |
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