HONG KONG - Beijing's decision following the earthquake and tsunami damage to nuclear power plants in Japan this month to suspend approvals for its own new nuclear plants and to conduct a nationwide review of existing facilities and those under construction does not indicate a change is likely in China's atomic energy strategy, experts and senior government officials say.
The State Council, or cabinet, announced on March 16 that it would suspend approvals for new nuclear power stations and conduct comprehensive safety checks of all nuclear projects, including those under construction. About 34 reactors are already approved by the central government and 26 are being built.
The cabinet's decision was aimed at easing mounting public concern over nuclear safety in the wake of Japan's ongoing nuclear crisis at Fukushima Dai'ichi Power Plant following a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and a tsunami.
At the end of the annual National People's Congress meeting on March 14, Beijing's nuclear strategy plan was approved in the 12th five-year plan (2011-2015), after which a spokesman of the China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC) said the strategy timetable from 2011 to 2015 would be a period of "active" expansion, to be followed by a "fast" development stage between 2016 and 2020.
China's first nuclear power reactor went into operation in the Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant in east China's Zhejiang province in late 1991. There are now 13 reactors in operation in Zhejiang, and south China's Guangdong provinces, with a total installed nuclear capacity of 10.8 gigawatts.
According to China's Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), China plans to increase installed nuclear capacity from 10.8 gigawatts at the end of 2010, accounting for less than 2% of the country's electricity production, to 40 gigawatts in 2015.
By 2020, China aims to generate 290 gigawatts from non-fossil fuel sources, including nuclear, hydro and wind power, accounting for 15% of the nation's electricity production. Of that, 70 gigawatts will be nuclear power, accounting for about 5% of the mainland's electricity production, and 150 gigawatts will come from wind power, which reached about 40 gigawatts at the end of 2010.
Four new nuclear power plants will go into operation in Guangdong province in 2015 while Jiangxi province and inland provinces such as Hunan and Hubei also have plans for nuclear projects.
Despite the State Council's decision, experts and senior government officials did not expect the country to slow the pace of nuclear development.
Professor Gu Zhongmao, a scientific adviser at the Beijing-based China Institute of Atomic Energy, told Asia Times Online by phone that Japan's nuclear leak was a reminder for greater awareness of the safety of nuclear power plants and that's why China is intensify safety checks on reactors in operation and under construction now.
"But I don't think the radiation leak in Japan will affect China's development strategy for nuclear power, as part of the nation's energy mix," said Gu.
To meet growing demand for power while seeking to cut carbon emissions caused by the use of fossil fuels, China was aiming to boosting the development of clean energy sources, including nuclear, solar, hydro and wind energy, said Gu.
"And nuclear power is a more cost effective and clean energy with its advances," Gu said.
Of the 13 existing nuclear power reactors, 11 are of an enhanced Generation 2 pressurized water reactor (PWR) design, which is different from the damaged Japanese boiling water reactors (BWR). The PWR, with a design life of 60 years, uses three-water-loop systems rather than the single one used in the Japanese reactors. The extra loops, which do not contain any radioactive substances, can reduce inside pressure by leaking out steam, decreasing the possibility of a burst of the containment vessel.
The remaining two pressurized water reactors use the CANDU technology designed and developed by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL), Gu said.
AECL earlier said it is looking at two alternative nuclear fuels - recovered uranium and thorium. The company in March last year proved the feasibility of using recovered uranium in the Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant of Zhejiang Province, which has had two CANDU 6 reactors in operation since 2003.
A chief benefit of a thorium nuclear reactor is that it offers no possibility of a meltdown. It also generates power inexpensively, does not produce weapons-grade by-products, and will burn up existing high-level waste as well as nuclear weapon stockpiles.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writing in the Daily Telegraph in the UK, said that US President Barack Obama could by focusing on thorium power development put an end to US dependence on fossil fuels "within three to five years". He argues that China is leading the way with its own "dash for thorium", announced this month.
Thorium is three to four times more abundant than uranium and is widely distributed in many countries as an easily exploitable resource. China has nearly 300,000 tonnes of thorium reserves, which is enough for the nation to use for 300 years, according to experts cited by China Daily.
Some of the Chinese reactors under construction are also expected to employ a new technology dubbed the AP1000 system, Gu said.
Developed by United States-based Westinghouse uses a passive core cooling system that doesn't require electricity as an essential driver. The AP1000's electrical system required for initiating the passive systems doesn't rely on external or diesel power, and the valves used on the reactor don't rely on hydraulic or compressed air systems. The passive system, when activated, is designed to remove heat for 72 hours, according to China Daily. China is also developing "a fast reactor" designed to be more fuel-efficient and safer than previous generations by use sodium as a coolant instead of water, Gu said.
A small-scale pilot fast reactor - the mainland's first - came on stream in a Beijing suburb last year, but this type of reactor will not become commercially viable for a further 30 years, given the insufficient manpower and resources support, he said.
"To ensure the safety of nuclear power plants, China is reassessing the safety of those under construction or winning approval, including the geographical stability of their sites, their anti-earthquake features and their proximity to the sea for a ready supply of water ... Once the safety issues are reassured, China must go on with its development plan of nuclear power plants to meet the demand for energy and its commitment to cut carbon emissions," he said.
Regarding the difficulties in developing its nuclear power strategy, Gu said a lack of well-trained experts is the main problem.
In the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015), China targets annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7%, down from the 7.5% goal in the previous five years - a target which was always well exceeded.
China's energy needs will increase 75% by 2035, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook in November.
The nation's demand for coal, which produces carbon a lot when burned, is expected to total 2.9 billion tons this year, 3.5 billion tons in 2015 and 3.8 billion tons in 2030, according to the China National Coal Association, though the IEA and US Energy Information Administration estimate China's 2025 coal consumption at 4.7 billion and 4.6 billion tons, respectively.
China aims to cut carbon emissions by 17% for each unit of GDP by 2015 and up to 45% for each unit of GDP by 2020
"These targets are significant because they are domestically binding, meaning that they carry political weight and that actions are necessary in the 12th Five-Year Plan if China has any chance of meeting these targets by 2020," Damien Ma, an analyst with the New York-based Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm, said on Chinausfocus.com.
Chai Guohan, chief engineer at the environment ministry's Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center, which oversees the country's nuclear safety, told Xinhua news agency that China's nuclear projects were far from seismic fault lines.
The nation's nuclear projects "have greater anti-earthquake and flooding capacity than the Fukushima power plant ... China is on a huge mainland facing a lower risk of tsunami ... we should not give up the development strategy for nuclear power," he said.
However, China is prone to earthquakes and areas are regularly hit floods and drought. Following Japan's nuclear leak, Greenpeace activists in Hong Kong called on the government to opt for more renewable energy sources due to its proximity to the Daya Bay station in Guangdong, which is about 45 kilometers from the special economic zone Shenzhen and about 50 kilometers from Hong Kong.
Operating since 1994, the Daya Bay station generates 30 billion kilowatts of electricity each year, 70% of which is transmitted to Hong Kong with the remaining 30% supplied to the China Southern Power Grid.
The Greenpeace call following a public outcry at the delay in reporting an incident involving a suspected crack in a fuel rod that caused a slight increase in radioactivity in the cooling water at its unit two reactor last May. In October last year, a flaw was observed during an inspection at a pipe section of an auxiliary cooling system in the containment building to be used during an outage. Workers were exposed to radioactivity equal to two chest X-rays.
A spokesperson of Hong Kong-based CLP, which has a 25% stake in the Daya Bay nuclear plant, told Asia Times Online that the company is reviewing its new investment in the Yangjiang nuclear project in Guangdong.
CLP signed a letter of cooperation agreement with state-owned China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding Co last July to take a 17% stake in the Yangjiang plant, which will cost 70 billion yuan (US$10.6 billion) to build and is due to start producing electricity in 2013.
The spokesman also said that with the country's cabinet decision on reviewing nuclear projects, the Yangjiang nuclear project was also subject to review by the Chinese government.
China Guangdong Nuclear Power, which owns and operates the Daya Bay plant, and China National Nuclear Corp, the country's largest atomic plant operator, said they have monitored and started safety checks on their nuclear stations after the Japan's nuclear leak.
Li Xiaolin, chairwoman of Hong Kong-listed China Power International Development, an operator of coal-fired and large hydro-power plants, said on March 16 that the nuclear power projects of the company's parent China Power Investment Corp are under review by the Chinese government and China Power Investment.
"Therefore the company's exposure on nuclear power is unlikely in the short term," Li said at the press conference, dismissing China Power Investment's earlier idea to inject nuclear assets into the Hong Kong-listed unit.
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