Squidd, this is where an injection some business nouse can make things clearer. A $160M capex is much easier to derisk than a $4BILLION capex that just keeps on rising.
SDL have minimal negotiating leverage in comparison to AVI. Someone like AVI has options. It has a massive resource;
-in a country with low soverign risk (the way of the Congo jungle is to grease everyone that comes along with brown paper bags)
-with a rail system there and being used to haul ore for a hundred years, upgraded every year (nothin but inhospitable jungle on SDLs tenemants)
-and should AVI want to export, a 1st class port is there (SDL hope that someone will build one for them in the next few years)
I could go on and on. AVI has options and alternative business plans at their disposal. Use existing infrastructure or build your own? Sell ore to the biggest smelters on earth which are next door, or export to another buyer in Europe or Asia. And I could keep going on and on.
Most of all, I'm sure you realise that AVI management is proven at setting up such operations. They are extremely conservative with their figures. SDL obviously are not. They keep shouting from the rooftops in hope of someone rescuing them.
I cannot come on here and keep tutoring you wrt economics and business 101 and 201 lessons.
Good Luck with your investment people. Just keep your eyes wide open.
AIMHOO
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