Grubble, there's good logic in what you say, though a few posts on a stock forum is hardly a news campaign or sustained negativity and no point in me trying to convince you I'm writing for the fun of it, but I am.
To me the volatility had two potential explanations: that there may well be a big hitter trying to shake the tree and accumulate and set for a take-over ... or someone with a lot of shares that has made a lot of money on the way up and has taken out a margin loan or some other arrangement tied to the share price and now they are fighting the down-trend in order to hold up the price. But the price response to the latest announcement makes me think that this is simply another post-exploration euphoria, pre-production slump with only low chance of new highs for a long time but definite risk of more down-side ie, the distribution phase is under way.
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