For mine, the CAPEX estimation is a critical figure. 3.5years out from production, that figure will clearly fluctuate alot, but the fact that it is trending upwards tells me that it 'could' go over $5B at this rate.
Sure, the CAPEX pay off for SDL is quite good. 3 years. But some of that money is going to come out of shareholder pockets. I strongly doubt that SDL can get finance arranged for over $4.5B.
If we can get the CAPEX fully financed by an instiution, then that's great, but it is by no means a guarentee. Either the share registry is going to be diluted, or we are going to be handing over a significant amount of the sales to our finance partner.
I understand not everyone will agree with me on this and I respect that, but I think it's only fair that I can voice my view. The announcement raised my eyebrows, and not in a good way.
SDL Price at posting:
48.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held