supply agreeements

As we get closer to the signing of the Sanofi supply agreement it would be interesting to gather peoples thoughts as to what the nature of this contract will be. The main thing I am interested in is the time frame and commitment level. In an interview AS did a while ago he effectively said that Sanofi would be placing an order for around 400M units once production had commenced and been validated. Obviously this does not mean Unilife would be delivering that many units at that point in time (as we will not require or have that capacity until 2012-2013), however the agreement and subsequent purchase orders could still lock in this number of units as what will be required to be delivered between June 2011 and June 2013 (roughly). From memory AS also mentioned in a recent presentation something about the pharmas commiting on a longer time frame and stockpiling, rather han simply ordering what they need for initial age testing.

I believe the nature of these supply agreements signed later this year (starting with Sanofi around June/July) will have a massive impact on the shares price. If they are longer term commitments, as proposed above, then we could be seeing significant increases in the share price this year, rather than having to wait until we are much closer to June 2013 release.

I also thought it was interesting in the recent AFR article dated 30th March that Naos Asset Management said "the stock could be 5 to 10 times its current share price AND THIS COULD HAPPEN A LOT QUICKER THAN PEOPLE EXPECT". Maybe this is what he was getting at?