AKE 0.00% $9.83 allkem limited

looking cheap again, page-3

  1. 1,694 Posts.
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    I agree that its great buying, hence I rebalanced my portfolio today and bought in.

    I'm targeting a 50% return in 15 months (FY 2013) - although it could exceed this if Salinas Grande &/or Li prices surprise on the upside.

    Things I'm looking for:

    1. Final project approvals granted by Jujuy by July.

    2. DFS to include a NPV of 100m and be released concurrent/before approvals ie by July. This would ensure that TT would be completely responsible for the 100m funding to get Olaroz into initial production. (25m to purchase 25% Olaroz stake; 25m contribution as per equity stake; 60% 'cheap japanese debt' covering the balance).

    3. Salinas Grandes drilling results and inferred resource in line with ultra low cost Li brine deposits.

    4. Construction underway by year end. First production by 1/1/13.

    5. More media that Li demand likely to be stronger than expected with upside growth from car and portable device batteries - 210k demand by 2020 seen as likely case rather than upside case. Concerns over viability of Bolivian Li plans and drive to secure supply lead to anecodatal pricing contracts over US$7000/t and predictions of 10,000/t+ pricing.

    Even some of the above (1-4 for instance) would make ORE cheap at a market cap around $500m, let alone $250m. The Li price could be the wildcard though - increased Li demand would obviously allow ORE to increase its profitability but also could allow it to massively increase its production - even 100kT/yr would still give Olaroz a 40yr lifespan. This scenario is where ORE could really clean up - a market cap in the 5-10b range is even plausible.
 
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