whats the next share price driver?, page-10

To give you an indication of where iron ore prices could be, a report by Resource Capital Research(RCR)who also have a report on IFE, have indicated that "the contract price gained ground for the June quarter to around $170/t for Pilbara fines at 62% iron FOB. In the September quarter contract price could dip to around $162/t FOB."

"Despite this, he believes most iron ore producers can still expect strong profit margins in the mid-term, excluding the risk of an unexpected stall in the Chinese economy."

"the spot market, to which contracts are indexed, reaching a record high in February of about $US191 per tonne CFR for imports to China.

Now as you can see IFE are not quoting anywhere need these prices for next year. IFE are basing $50p/t profit on $135p/t prices which would mean a 17% drop from Sept 2011 prices. If we went with $162FOB then IFE would make an extra $27mill profit on 1 mill p.a production.

Note also that these prices are in US$ and I would think if prices came off a bit say 5% it would also be offset by a drop in our currency of similar percentage.

By 2015 we may get to $115p/t (which most analyst predict) but by that stage we would have made up to $150 mill in profits and our operating costs would come down with closer and better infastructure.

This is a no brainer now that we have the money to start.