P2W, yes the oil price I work on is the Tapis as Nymex and WTI have nothing to do with us here in Oz (why they keep getting quoted in the oz media is a mystery)
Yes BOT the soveriegn debts are all on paper in the form of government bonds and China has accumulated a huge amount of US bonds. Look at the european nations like ireland, greece & spain, these debts are not meaningless to those faced with austerity measures.
I just think the present situation seems so much like 2008 again. The stocks have been rising without much real credibility to substanciate these gains. The All Ords has been a little more cautious but look at the Dow! I haven't really seen any great economic data coming out of the USA since 2008 to give rise to this huge gain. In fact the opposite if anything.
We see markets now that look well overvalued compared with actual economic performance and every little jolt of doubt seems to trigger retractions in the Dow of up to 600 points. What will happen when there'e a bigger reason to doubt, once a run starts!
The rate of foreclosures in Oz are increasing. if a second dip is around the corner then we will again see commodities drop (including oil, gold & silver) some of our larger resources projects may in fact be put on hold. No stimulus this time to prop up the retail sector (our biggest employer by far!)
A second GFC will be felt much more here that the first one was.
