rough valuation

the following post was made by Condog (aka OilGoldGas) on ASF, i am reposting it here for HC holders benefit



From march 8th Preso

5000 boepd post royalties by end of 2011.

$20K maintainance per well. Average interest of AUT approx 24% or so.

5000*340=1.7M boe * $100perboe $170M

80wells at $20K * 12 * 24% = $4.6M

Post royalty rev approx $165M

PE of 10 = $1.65 Billion
PE of 15 = $2.47 Billion
PE of 20 = $3.30 Billion
PE of 25 = $4.1 Billion

current mcap approx 380,000,000 * 2.90 = $1.1B

Sector average PE is genrally north of 20, its presently 24.

$4.1B over 380M = $10.79 per share.

Note this does not mean it will come true but its easy to see the potential on offer.

Im using $8+ as my projection. Which again doesnt mena it will be met, but thats my basic valuation using several methods.