I still believe that the most conservative plan would be to raise into the pre-spud optimisim ahead of Gindara.
It now seems that the 5 wells within 18-24 months announced in May last year is dead - there is no way that Nido will drill 4 more wells within 1 year (after Gindara that is) and the next well SC63 is going to be as late as March 2012.
I know that internally Gindara is thought to be as close to a "sure thing" as there is in the oil patch so maybe they plan to roll the dice (I wouldn't...).
One piece of evidence hinting at a CR is the implicit denial of a planned CR (i.e. internally funded wells).
Another (I would imagine) appealing option would be to sell for cash the shallow part of SC54 - having stuffed-up there Nido will be reluctant to try their hand again in my opinion - which makes selling it attractive.
It is on the public record what interests in each service contract Nido did intend to retain (look back at the "value to Nido if a discovery" slide on the 5 well drilling programme (which we are currently 1/2 to 2/3 of the way thorugh on the public timetable).
p1000
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