bright future ahead for lyc, page-21

omg wrote: When you say $10 by years end you mean end of 2012 yeah not 2011? Just for clarification because if its 2011 i think i am about to have a heart attack.

No I mean $10 by the end of 2011. If phase two goes smooth and we keep Crown, $20 by 2012 is reasonable. I realize at first glance this seems wild. But we are that far ahead of every other company. And the demand curve for rare earths is so strong, the numbers make sense.

Look at the end markets. Look at the first mover advantage. A little more than a year ago at this time we were just concrete at Mount Weld. But how close are any other REE stocks to pouring concrete? I think they are all going to be engineering for a while (including Moly). It takes a long time to put together this complex an operation. And the idea that someone else will throw all of this together on the fly and catch up in a year or two is laughable to me when I compare REE stock presentations.

The others are scrambling at best. I think Moly paring a $17.5 million (Santoku America) Japanese manfacturer in Arizona with an Estonian Soviet era processor for $90 million so they can make magnets from basteasite which lacks dysprosium is a big scramble. And calling that nasty stew a mine to magnet model insults any listener's intelligence.

And the rest of the companies seem very long range IMO. Its not a knock on other stocks. But you really need to suspend doubt to see their plan. And if you look at what we have been through (and even subtract out the GFC) it is hard to see these others sailing through years of development without a snag. I mean several of these stocks have low grade mines, are in very remote areas and have little or no infrastructure or funding. But we should assume they will have no problems. Na. I think their path will look like ours minus the GFC. That's a realistic if not conservative view.

Then consider the REE demand curve. These things are in nearly every revolutionary technology since the telephone for crying out loud. They are the color in TV's, the C: in your computer, the portable in portable electronics, the power in your portable devices, the smart in your smart phone, the green in your green technology. ect. ect. ect.

And with all of that said we doubt our stock can quadruple. Considering the rise we have all seen in Apple, Netflix or Fortescue when it began, why would we doubt this potential? Honestly, these other stocks did less critical achievements and went much higher. All I'm saying is we are going to finish a multi-year plan in a few months, at a height in our industry, with no real competition out there. The rest is just math really.