nice bounce, page-5

Your statements are well reasoned Weakness.

AVM is not a stock where TA is helpful.
Nor "fundamentals" it seems.

The main story is that share price is based on "fundametals" - naimly actual profits and short term profit predictions.

So the "overburden" problem has brought a stop to higher share price trend.

The latest "weakness" could wll be caused by some sort of "glitch" at Dikulushi. - Short term set back that may delay move to full profit stream as predicted.

Institutions appear to put a conservative value on Anvil and that is where the share price hovers.
Was 70 to 72 cents for a period.
Now appears to be 65 to 67 cents.

Perhaps the Quarterly report due late April will bring to light reasons for present price fall back.

The strong outlook for Anvil is what institutions term "speculative" element.
That is the potential for other large ore deposits to be proved and mined in the not too distant future.

There have been sufficient information given on Anvil web site and posts which make future large - long life mines inevitable, rather than speculative.

However institutions are conservative.
Valuations are strict and based on properly proved resource deposits, actual profits and profit predictions for the next twelve month period.

This evaluation process has seen share price move strongly over a period.
Setbacks due to overburden problems, slow down in production caused by such factors as wet season impediments -- and even some minor local unrest scares.
The last factor makes for very profitable buying opportunities.

So what is predictable?
Predictable is Dikulushi profits after overburden problem has been overcome - probably late this month, although share price suggests minor setback there.
Predictable is the increased profit stream once the "tailings mine" is in production late this year.

This gives intitutional valuations leading to a share price of about $1.00 within twelve months.

65 cents now.
$1.00 within a year?
53% gain?
Not too bad!
Eh?

However the "speculative" aspect which includes new proven ore bodies and more resources upgrades at Dikulushi are inevitable.

A number of company owned drilling rigs are now testing known deposits to achieve market acceptable standards of recognition.

Without new proven resources and consequent new mines Anvil is still a strong buy.
Given a twelve months period.

For those prepared to hold long term the potential is much better.
In a section of the market showing great strength.
In a company showing top of the range management skills and a record for achieving best results for shareholders.

No short term rocket.
Just a very profitable hold.

A hold in this company beats trading for profits.

Thats how I see it anyhow.

CheerNT