good write up tonite, page-9

That newsletter is a double edged sword, it does increase awareness in a company, but mainly by mums and dads who won't give medium term buying support. They can facilitate big enough volumes to blast through any capping that might be occurring, but often traders will jump on board with them, pump, pump, pump and then dump - massive short term gains and volatility are possible, but the worry is to whether they become sustainable, hopefully the relatively small volumes usually traded will keep the DT's away.

ARD is already proving a bit of a rollercoaster, with enormous volumes out of nowhere last week, and price rises to match. Friday volume was way down, but the price held up surprisingly well - will be very interesting come monday.

Everyone who bothers to keep themselves as informed as possible re precious metals seems to be collectively holding their breath right now, I think even the big market players and speculators aren't sure where to turn or where we'll be this time next week. Explosive gains in physical, especially in the last month have even the bulls a little bit spooked short term. We could see a pull back on Monday - there's support at approx $42 and $35, but TA has thus far been wide of the mark with the POS. Retracement and consolidation at these levels possible, healthy and still represent profitability for ARD (though I'd expect short term over-reactions in the price of miners relative to physical).

This huge volatility is scary to watch and you need nerves of steel and a solid plan to stick to. I've posted why I'm cautious on the silver thread, I think a lot of people (silver bugs included) are in a similar frame of mind, this might play into the hands of anyone looking for shorting in the near term, HOWEVER, with the size of the market so tiny a big player with deep pockets could rapidly swoop on a dip and drive gains higher again, pulling market momentum with them - rumours of Chinese banks and Russian Billionaires seem fanciful and long term unhelpful, we don't want another Hunt bubble, we want a sustained increase in silver, with recalibration of the Gold/Silver ratio to below 30 please. Would love to see $50 breached soon, but that breach might be more sustainable with some consolidation for a while...

My preferred scenario would be continued gains in gold relative to silver (technically gold looks set for further rises next week), with static silver prices. This helps keep silver's ratio to gold above 30 and takes the heat out of the silver market for a while but might also attract people to sell silver and move into gold (a short sighted plan in my opinion)

Disclosure: Holding ARD/ARDO + other silver miners