I think the market vane indicator could be a good indicator of a possible near term change in trend, but I feel uncomfortable with the chart. This relates to the US market and USD POG. It may not be directly applicable to the ozzie goldies (at least not on a one-to-one relationship). I have no background knowledge that would enable me to make a call on that.
While I believe in gold mid-longer term (unless we get significantly positive interest rates in major economies), in the short term pretty much anything could happen to the USD POG, including a large fall (eg if we had a GFC2 event, Chinese demand for gold lessened, there was a market panic and profits were taken from the gold ETFs). The US markets seem a bit toppy after an excellent run while the US economy is stalling again so I think the risk is to the downside in the short term for all assets.
Perhaps this is just the old wall of worry, and people should just pile into the goldies.
Sprott is a lot smarter than me. After all he is a billionaire and I am just an ordinary share punter. Look how he sold out of CGX on the TSX, dumping the shares under $3.00 (but mostly sold above that level) and his view seems to have anticipated that CGX's quarterly report would be less than expected. Sprott has also been selling SLR, which has lost some of its former lustre. I like both companies but I need to acknowledge that my expectations were a bit high.
The current commodities boom is my last chance to participate in one - when the next one comes around I will be residing in the ether so I need to make some gains while I can, but not to expect that this learning experience will be useful to me in the future.
Could you let me know what other indicators for the gold markets you follow and their links. I think I need to get smarter because my seat of the pants approach to investing in the goldies has some pretty big pitfalls.
