Debt is all AUD denominated, so at minimum you should subtract it out of the equation to look at residual.
So the "hit" would at worst only be on the equity - ie max impact would be on say $150 Million reduces by $50 Million.
The buyers cashflow has also increased - was getting 80 cents US (assuming US purchaser or USD exposure), now getting 110 cents US.
Only trouble is if they think the exchange rate will come off and if so when. this is a question of what their forward curve looks like, not yours or mine. Different multinational's manage differently.
If they believed the AUD was headed higher, it could be a benefit. I could tell a pretty good story about the US being a debt ridden basket case and china artificially keeping low to make their exports competitive.
In takeover situations, a Grant Samuel or like assumes efficient markets and that current exchange reflects extends into future (no difference in domicile of owning entity with respect to exchange rate impacts).
So the answer could be positive and negative, most likely towards zero, and certainly no more than $50 Million.
Anything to add SVDM given your international experience ?
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