Ann: Successful Completion of Southdown Project P, page-14

re: Ann: Successful Completion of Southdown P... Thought he did, by taking 70% of the 90% of the estimated 10Mtpa.

So here's a back of the envelope calculation:
Currently 1,152M shares outstanding
Avg Net margin is $120 per tonne
Avg production Savage River 2Mtpa
Net before tax = $240M
Net to company of 60% (assume taxes et al)= $146M
Earnings per share 12.37cps
PE of 8
Stock Price = $1

Adding in Southdown and making huge assumption of all else being equal on pricing and assuming a 70% Debt Financing of just mine.
Debt of 70% of 70% of $2.6B = approx $1.3B
CapEx costs at 10% interest only = $130M
Capital raising of $600M for the 30% (now our 70% fully funded) and at say 60cps for extra 1B shares

Now we have 2,152 Shares outstanding
Total production 9Mtpa
Net before tax & capex = $1,080M
Less Capex cost of $130M
Net before tax of $950M
Net to company of 60% = $570M
Earnings per share = 26.5cps
PE 8
Stock price = $2.12

Obviously a lot of levers to be pulled, but I could see a $2.50 SP in 2014/15 when production begins, which is 4 fold increase.

Downside of course is that is one massive project that could sink them if it turns pear shaped.

Best forecast estimate not supported by actual data!