DML 0.00% 1.9¢ discovery metals limited

copper demand, page-13

  1. 1,035 Posts.
    Here is what I estimate for the next 3 years base case scenario. It is formatted for HTML but does not display too well on HC.

    Year .................... ........ 2012 ........ 2013 ........ 2014
    Strip ratio .............
    Open Pit material mined . t ...... 24,000,000
    Ore throughput (o/p) .... t ...... 2,000,000 ... 3,000,000 ... 3,000,000
    Ave Cu grade (o/p) ...... % ...... 1.44% ....... 1.44% ....... 1.44%
    Ave Ag head grade (o/p) . g/t .... 20.2 ........ 20.2 ........ 20.2
    UG ore processed ........ t ...... 0 ........... 0 ........... 0
    Ave Cu grade (u/g) ...... % ...... 1.75% ....... 1.75% ....... 1.75%
    Ave Ag grade (u/g) ...... g/t .... 20 .......... 20 .......... 20
    Copper recovery ......... % ...... 83.6% ....... 83.6% ....... 83.6%
    Silver recovery ......... % ...... 61% ......... 61% ......... 61%
    Cu recovered (o/p) ...... t ...... 24,077 ...... 36,115 ...... 36,115
    Ag recovered (o/p) ...... oz ..... 792,412 ..... 1,188,617 ... 1,188,617
    Cu recovered (u/g) ...... t ...... 0 ........... 0 ........... 0
    Ag recovered (u/g) ...... oz ..... 0 ........... 0 ........... 0
    Concentrate Grade ....... % Cu ... 41% ......... 41% ......... 41%
    Copper price ............ US$/t .. 8,000 ...... 8,000 ...... 8,000
    Silver Price ............ US$/oz . 30.0 ........ 30.0 ........ 30.0
    Copper revenue .......... US$ .... 192,611,000 . 288,916,501 . 288,916,501
    Silver revenue .......... US$ .... 23,772,347 .. 35,658,521 .. 35,658,521
    Total Revenue (incl Ag) . US$ .... 216,383,348 . 324,575,021 . 324,575,021
    Net Op Costs (o/p) ...... US$/lb . 1.46 ........ 1.46 ........ 1.46
    Net OP costs (u/g) ...... US$/lb . 0 ........... 0 ........... 0
    Total OP costs .......... US$ .... 77,475,290 .. 116,212,935 . 116,212,935
    Calc unit costs/t ore ... US$/t .. 39 .......... 39 .......... 39
    Operating Margin ........ US$ .... 138,908,058 . 208,362,086 . 208,362,086
    Offsite G&A ............. US$ .... 1,900,000 ... 1,900,000 ... 1,900,000
    Expex ................... US$ .... 8,000,000 ... 8,000,000 ... 8,000,000
    Capex (sust) ............ US$ .... 3,000,000 ... 3,000,000 ... 3,000,000
    EBITDA .................. US$ .... 126,008,058 . 195,462,086 . 195,462,086
    Interest charges (@5%) .. US$ .... 9,000,000 ... 2,600,000 .. 1,000,000
    EBTDA ................... US$ .... 117,008,058 . 192,862,086 . 194,462,086
    DA ...................... US$ .... 11,700,806 .. 19,286,209 .. 19,446,209
    EBT ..................... US$ .... 105,307,252 . 173,575,878 . 175,015,878
    Tax rate ................ % ...... 0% .......... 0% .......... 10%
    Tax charged ............. US$ .... 0 ........... 0 ........... 17,501,588
    NPAT .................... US$ .... 105,307,252 . 173,575,878 . 157,514,290
    Shares issued (FD) ...... ........ 447,430,006 . 447,430,006 . 447,430,006
    EPS ..................... US$ .... 0.24 ........ 0.39 ........ 0.35
    FOREX ................... GBP/$ .. 1.64 ........ 1.64 ........ 1.64
    EPS ..................... UKp .... 14.4 ........ 23.7 ........ 21.5
    est SP @ x10 PER ........ UKp .... 144 ......... 237 ......... 215
    Forex A$/GBP ............ ........ 0.64 ........ 0.64 ........ 0.64
    est SP in A$ cents ...... A$c .... 223 ......... 368 ......... 334

    Just my opinion of course.
    CPDLC
 
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