I think sentiment is gradually changing and one or two of those who sold are slowly jumping back on board, but these are small fish in the sea compared to institutions who i believe are still using CFE as their plaything. It looks to me that an institution is definitely buying now.
The marampa drilling announcement this week was more of a reminder to the market and gave a timeline which really needs to be met (and i believe it will be). The market has a little more clarity and expectation about the "late" june quarter JORC result.
My personal speculation is that post marampa sale i'm thinking that TS will use a significant portion of the cash to try and buy the pinnacle assets outright from the current 46% shareholding. This could cost $70-100 million + IMO, before attempting to spin off each of the pinnacle assets individually in due course maybe as seperate IPO's, or trade sale + equity deals. I don't think pinnacle will be offered as an all in one IPO itself.
The risk/reward on this at the moment is excellent and happy to be holding. I do like the idea of more geographical diversity as upwards of 70% of CFE's value is currently in Sierra Leone/guinea, which isnt ideal but thats where the big gains are. Hence, i do like the LRS story and im sure TS is on this. Would love to have some exploration success with Australis in particular (I saw pattersons valued Australis at $10 million AUD in their feb valuation of CFE), but with a little success then the upside here is enormous, which would also improve the geographic diversity.
Lets hope for a steady rise leading into the JORC, and a big rise afterwards ;)
Best of luck.
Kasper
CFE Price at posting:
50.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
