article in bloomberg, page-28

luckymjohnson wins the prize - reading through the thread I was wondering when someone was going to pick up on this -very lazy commentary by SDL in an otherwise positive announcement.
For the record SDL has 81% of Mbarga and 76.5% of Nabeba after Govt's are allocated their interests.
The SDL SP WILL rise when SDL sell 20,30,40% or whatever of the projects because of certainty - all brokers analysis over the past year has already factored this sale (at a price less than NPV) into their valuations - Southern Cross and Bell Potter examples.
The sharemarket currently values 10% of the undeveloped/ unfinanced project at $125 million (via SDL SP) against various NPV calcs of $225 - $400m+++ depending on IO price at an operating mine level.
Conceptually a sale of 40% of the project for $500m will leave SDL with 40% of the project funded with $3.5b debt. At IO price $60sh tonne - the EBITDA will be circa $1.3b ($100t = $2.6b) - ignoring additional production rates.
Only then can a NPV valuation (net of debt)be utilised with some certainty in valuing the SDL SP - from above $900m (4x225m)to $1,600m or $0.32 to $0.57 per share. BP & SC had valuations $0.72 to $0.77 with Capex $800m lower so I must be pretty close to the mark with these numbers.
In hindsight I think that is what the market has been telling us the past 6 months?????????? - it just got ahead of itself.
Seems like a buy to me but I will be selling quite a bit lower than the $1. I still think the Chinese will try and buy us out around mid $0.40s.