back of envelope calculation

Just going off the April 28 ann, here are some back of the envelope calcs based on the info provided, will try to extrapolate from here when they will have enough gold for the "first pour".

50,000 tonne of ore on the ROM pad
Processing rate of 70t per hour

Not sure if they're strictly using tailings alone but will assume so.

Assuming tailings alone

Approx grade = 2 to 3g/tonne
Recovery rate ~ 60% = 1.2 to 1.8g so average out around 1.5g/tonne recoverable Au.

70t of ore can be processed per hour but will be conserative and assume 80% of this so 70 x 80% = 56t/hour 1.5 x 56 = 84g of gold can be produced per hour...x 24hrs = 2016g/day.

The 'standard' gold dore bars are 20kg bricks so 20,000g divided by 2016g = Approx 10 days per brick.

Just to cross reference with nameplate.

365days/10 days = 36.5 days per brick

36.5 x 20kg = 730kg per annum

730kg = 730,000 grams

31 grams per troy oz so 730,000/31 = 23,458 oz per annum which sounds about nameplate (considering the recovery rate of the tailings).

Again, basic calculations here so please don't hold me to it.

It all depends when they started the production process but announcement makes reference to ore being introduced during the Easter weekend (April 22) but given fine tuning that may be required I will assume April 28 when the ann came out.

I don't know if they'll wait to process the whole 50,000t of ore before pouring, you would think they may want to test the furnace before so. So here are my rough dates for the pour:

May 8 for 1 gold bar - Gone/not applicable
May 18 for 2 gold bars
May 28 for 3 gold bars
June 8 for 4 gold bars which would exhaust 50,000t ore.

I hope they produce 2 gold bars first

Assuming 90% gold content, each gold dore bar worth ~ $US800K.

Again, rough calcs and not remotely close to investment advice :)

Considering the ASX dropped 1.2% today, SBL didn't fare too badly, take a look at the charts for OGC, ADU, PRU, NCM, EAU over the last few weeks and you can see just how much of a pounding gold stocks have taken, all producers except PRU.

All the best of luck holders...we gotta be close by now.