4c barrier will be broken this month!, page-7

Jessie

Yip I'm not backing down from those comments, and I'm not ramping or de-ramping MLA in anyway.

I first bought MLA at .34c and a smaller packet at .36 not long after. I bought these shares based on the MLA story, what they have done and potential ahead. However I never quantified any of this analysis. At this stage, I was pretty giddy on MLA with no idea what I paid for them.

Since then..

I?ve added a few more valuation criteria?s to my small cap portfolio, and MLA doesn?t meet them. I found MLA would need its EBITDA to quadruple from its current levels to justify its EV. Or it?s SP would need to drop into the 25-28c range to justify the current EBITDA. (These comparables are based on similar ASX companies who are trading below 5X EV)

I tried to sell my MLA?s at .38c before the big drop, but missed out which had me at a big loss, then thankfully it rebounded and that sell order was filled. So I HOLD 0 MLA shares.

Like the rest of you, I like where MLA is going however I think this AND SOME has already been valued into the share price. I?ll be watching this one closely, and pounce when the time is right. In the meantime there are other stocks out there doing the same thing as MLA nearly 5x cheaper!

Pittwater ? Mate, have another check of your numbers. Assume FY12 EBITDA with a 15-20% uplift on FY11, and then compare it to MLA?s Enterprise value (you will need to make debt assumptions).