Lunchi time...well..
I disagree with your interpretation for point 2. Noble is in a business of controlling commodities supplies from head to tail as stated on its website and it's past birders statement to various targets. 45c include premium for control, it is supposed to be much more than the then market valuation since the stock is under 100m market cap and not liquid, which prevents any party from buying a large stake without sending the price rocket high in the secondary market. Therefore 45c is a fair price for noble to pay, not to mention that they also request to get protected from possible dilution by inserting terms and conditions in the contract, and obtain option to buy more, this option worth money too. So who is the most influential shareholder? Noble. Has he obtained operational control? Almost, just a matter of time to creep up it's %. When shall we exp a takeover? Next recession, as in line with noble's strategy of accumulating cash and spend it in bad times.
Re3. The market is eff in a way that people are not rushing in given the correct interpretation of the public information, I did not say prices are always right and not varying, neither are they prerequests for market efficiency, it's just no arbitrages and free lunches.
I hope you don't take it personal.
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