When valuing a resource project like Rocklands you can't use PE ratios, you need to use NPV and discount the cashflows at the companies cost of capital. For example, BHP has mines all over the world and a steady flow of projects and cash to develop them and they only trade on 10-11 times earnings, the same you are using for a single project company that has not produced yet.
Using scanspeaks NPAT of $261M and 200M shares as in the first post and a 13% discount rate and a $200M initial capex to start you get a valuation of around $1.2B or a $6.08 share price over 10 years assuming that production starts now. If the project starts earning one year from now the current valuation would be around $5.38. The companies capital management, ie 100% payout or reinvestment is irrelevant to the value.
I have no idea if these figures (NPAT etc) are correct or under/overstate the project but the point is you shouldn't use PE ratios, use NPV.
CDU Price at posting:
$3.19 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
