Although I dont think Samurai David claimed it to be his own writing, however he seems to totally agree with everything said in the article.
I wonder if Huntley does the same..
I remember how Huntley was going on about the Oil price and said it would fall back to US$35.00 !! and sit around this price for many months. I thought he was talking BullSh!t and sincerely believed it would never fall below US$40.00 and so far it hasn't.
And now Huntley reckons Oil Price is going to hit US$80.00..He sure changed his tune from bearish to bullish. Read On..
"With the price of oil hovering just above late 2004 record highs, all those oil issues emerge again. First, I'm not looking for the oil price to rage away this year. Already OPEC is lifting production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). The Saudis are trying to stabilise the price for the rest of the year, and are doing their level best to lift production to 12.5million bpd over the next few years, although they are more heavy sour crude oil producers, more suitable for heating than petrol.
So I'm looking for US$40/$55 oil prices over the next year or so, with a late decade "end of cycle" run up to over US$80 a barrel, reckoning that the Hubberts' Peak forecast that the rate of growth in oil consumption now exceeds the rate of growth in oil production is pretty much spot on, let alone its suggestion that the rate of growth in oil production will now turn negative. Iraq is something of a wild card, for surely that country will settle down, and its production should also rise relatively quickly - over a year or so - by several million barrels per day.
Consumption last calendar year rose 4.2%, admittedly a high annual figure but given consumption runs at just over 80million bpd that translates to just over an additional 3.2mbpd! Chinese demand alone is expected to lift by 500,000 to 600,000mbpd, this year. US and North Sea production are both, as I understand it, on a decline, as is our Bass Strait.
In looking at sharemarket outlook, and we are preparing a Special Report on portfolios, timing, and stock selection, I pay a lot of attention to the decade cycle which is hardly a new theory. It was outlined by Charles Dow, the founder of the Wall St Journal, in an article about 1900! The 20th century lived up to his view. It is also styled as the "Juggler" running from 9- 11 years, from trough to trough. The up cycle, sharemarket wise tends to run five to seven years, occasionally a little longer from trough to peak. So 1991-2001; 1982-7; 1974-1980; 1961/2-1973 (double top, 1970, 1973). The current cycle kicked off in Australia and the UK in March 2003, in the US, October 2002."
