Say they do get $2Billion for the project and it is going to be profitable to produce this phosphate fertilizer. The project should be worth at least the cash value for the construction. So Debt financing would need to be 10% roughly. And you would want to be repaying this down at 10% ish per year so you could conceive that the project is going to produce $400 million per year profit.
That could be from 1 MT of phosphoric acid from the plant or on DAP with $250 input costs would be 2MT of DAP. Interestingly, it could be both.
So if the project is throwing out a conservative 400mil profit and MAK is getting half, so $200 mil and half of that is to pay the interest on the debt, leaves a figure of $100mil per year. These are all rough figures but it indicates the type of profits that could conservatively be projected from one of the two options, excluding shipping Rock Phosphate on a rail line (which will be part of the project). RP on rail would be $80 per tonne profit at the moment and could have 3-6MT shipped per year -$240-480.
Conservatively MAK at a PE of 10 would be $1billion or 10 bagger from here or including all three options would be $2-3 billion. This is not unreasonable from the dollars thrown at the project, no one pays $2billion to build a mine that will be unprofitable.
So back of the envelope targets are $5-15 over the next 3 years.
AEV Price at posting:
47.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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