CDU 0.00% 23.5¢ cudeco limited

cdu not far behind sfr who has delivered dfs, page-3

  1. 46 Posts.
    stf excuse my ignorance but I can't help thinking that we are missing something when comparing the two companies ie SFR on their dfs also have larger output for the first three years and expected revenue is estimated at 730 mill for the first three years and 470 after that.
    If CDU mine about 3 mill tonnes pa at say 3% ( a conservative figure ???) then .03 * 3000000 * 8000 = 720000000 so revenue is similar ( at 4%-960 mill) . After that maybe 700 mill ( ie 30 mill plant at 1% and 7000 copper)or maybe less but still robust.
    Now the market capitalisation of SFR is a tad over 1 billion while CDU is approx 460 mill.
    Copper recovery from CDU is slightly higher than SFR (91% vs 95%??)- Capex cheaper for CDU. Similar costs of extraction and processing (for this I am really guessing but can't be too much different from each other as one has higher grades but underground compared to open cut and also considering transportation costs etc)
    Benefits of CDU; rail facilities, port facilities, roads, electricity, the already paid for mining equipment, less isolated, potential exploration upside huge.
    Benefits of SFR; higher grade,dfs, ML,potential exploration upgrade huge.
    Now we can see that both projects have their advantages and disadvantages so what is stopping CDU from having a similar valuation to SFR. It can't be the DFS or ML as the price of SFR increased before these were finalised and actually went down a little when the DFS was issued on the 3rd. So what is the difference??
    I think we can put it down to not the quality of the seperate mines ( I am not trying to denigrate SFR just use it for comparison so don't attack me JC) so it must be something else, like, for instance, liquidity re number of shares available and perception.
    In my opinion the share price should be, on the figures, similar to sandfires so it is being held back for whatever reason.
    Now CDU has two types of investors 1 is the type who don't trust the management and think it is a cowboy outfit. The second are those who believe WM is the messiah of mining to bring them untold wealth. However this works against them for they will never sell their shares and so trading is left to the disbelievers and short termers who churn the stock ever lower regardless of good news.In fact the beleivers buy more and worsen liquidity.
    To sum up, I can't for the life of me come up with a value for CDU that is anywhere as low as it is now but I can see a reason for it and maybe that is why WM is doing a buyback. Perception is everything here and that is the reason for the low share price, nothing else.
    Sorry about the long post everyone, from a believer.
 
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