Well guys, that's the big unknown that every man and his dog has been thinking about 24/7 for the last 12 months isn't it? How much oil is there under Hawk Springs and how much can we get to the surface. Simple answer is we don't know.
However, there are a few clues that we can analysis that give us a hint of what is down there.
1. The 3D seismic survey/results
Terry commented at the time that the results were " definitive ". But a 3D print out doesn't say "drill here for a shed load of oil". It only identifies structure that, when compared with results from other surveys, could hold an unspecified amount of Hydrocarbons. The last presentation acknowledged that the 3D had identified....conventional targets at 3 levels so that's a bonus, but more specifically it mapped closed traps, structural traps and 24 depositional pods. So that is a hell of a lot of data to work through.
Which brings us to Defender, due to spud next month. Is this THE most important well that Samson will ever drill? Think for a minute, what could happen to the share price when we get the announcement telling us the flow rates from this well. Psychologically, the result will be priceless if they are above average or exceptional and an immediate re-rating of the share price should occur.
2. How much oil are our neighbours producing ?
We have limited production numbers from Cheapskate but there encouraging. From Acreage's post on Wednesday , for 2011 up to the end of April they have produced nearly 50,000 barrels at between 500 and 1700 BOPD. How many of our ORRI wells have contributed to these numbers is unknown but at this stage there are at least 10 and possibly more so if Cheapskate are unhappy with results so far , they aren't showing it.They even want a sniff on our boundary to see if the grass is greener on our side of the fence.
This is going to take a while to play out. We are experiencing all sorts of delays at the moment but that's the way it is. Oil and Gas is tough, especially for a minnow like Samson. I'm sure Terry would love to own a couple of rigs and a fraccing crew but we don't so were at the mercy of OTHERS so it is what it is. I turned 53 last week and in a normal life would have at least 10 more years of getting up at 4am, 6days a week going to work on construction sites. But I have something that I think is pretty special. If this plays out as most of us think it will, a couple of years from now I will still be setting the alarm for 4am but I'll be going fishing so see you on the water.
Cheers OMR
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