A lot of intelligent people have great doubt whether Germany or Japan can cope if shutting down these Nuclear power plants.
Governments and policies change all the time and if new governments are elected and don't have the same "irrational risk taking" attitude as their predecessors then we could see nuclear powers life extended again and then more built. If you just took over government in Germany and the power grid is surging and predicted to get worse a lot of politicians would keep nuclear and blame the previous government for F%$^ up.
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